Life sucks sometimes. Bills need to be paid yet all you really want to do is sit in your underwear and prep for fantasy football season I get it. Or maybe that’s just me.. Either way, I’m here to make your fantasy football season pop off with some killer advice that you can use to not just squeak by your opponents but DOMINATE AND EMBARRASS YOUR LEAGUE MATES. If that sounds like something you’re interested in then welcome to Bank On It! Think of fantasy football players as stocks. I’m going to identify the blue chip stocks and differentiate them from the guys who are more boom or bust. First, let’s start with the Quarterbacks. Next week I will examine the running backs.

The position was harder to forecast in 2022 than in 2021. Only four players averaged more than 20 fantasy points per game (nine in 2021). We also only saw four QBs throw for 30-plus touchdowns compared to nine in 2021. I expect both of those numbers to increase this year as young QB such as Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, Justin Herbert and Lamar Jackson to all have career seasons. Now let’s get into the Tiers.

Tier 1- Elite Passers with Elite Rush Upside- The studs.

Patrick Mahomes

Jalen Hurts

Josh Allen

To be an elite fantasy quarterback in 2023, you must bring significant rushing upside to the table as well as high-end passing ability. Jalen Hurts took a huge leap in 2022 proving the doubters wrong that said he was too inaccurate. He improved his passer rating 14.3 points and his completion % jumped from 61.3 to 66.5. Hurts and his 13 rushing touchdowns is locked into Tier 1. Josh Allen has been in Tier 1 since 2020 and that will not change in 2023. The narrative that Josh had a down year in 2022 isn’t based in fact. He threw 35 touchdowns and while the accuracy dipped a bit, he was still a machine in the scoring department. Don’t get cute. Josh Allen is still an elite fantasy option. I don’t think I need to convince you why you need to draft Mahomes do I? He produced 417.4 fantasy points in 2022. That broke a single-season record of 417.1— set by Mahomes in 2018. He’s a cheat code and will continue to dominate for the foreseeable future.

Tier 2-Elite Rushers vs Elite Passers– Guys you count on to produce big in one aspect but could provide underrated production with passing or rushing upside.

Joe Burrow

Justin Fields

Lamar Jackson

Justin Herbert

Trevor Lawrence

Joe Burrow kicks off this tier as the best of this bunch. He had a better completion % and more passing yards than Josh Allen with just as many passing touchdowns. While he had less than 300 yards rushing (257), he provides sneaky rushing upside with 5 touchdowns on the ground. He’s super reliable and attached to a high powered offense with cohesion. They return all of their skill players (no word on Joe Mixon’s status yet) and added a good LT in Orland Brown Jr. If Burrow can be protected better and extend drives with a better O-Line, he will pay off in a big way this season. Justin Fields broke Twitter last season on his way to an electric sophomore season. He will need to improve his passing numbers to reach this tier but the additions of Chase Claypool and DJ Moore will almost certainly aide him. If he can approach 3,500 yards passing with 20 or more passing touchdowns he could find himself in tier 1 by the end of the season. I imagine Lamar Jackson will be playing angry as hell in 2023 after his turmoil filled 2022. He has some new guys added to the offense (OBJ, Zay Flowers, OC Todd Monken) and a new pass-friendly approach to the system. Health is obviously huge for Jackson but I expect him to have his best season since his MVP year. Justin Herbert struggled with injuries of his own and to his top dogs at WR all season. The Chargers hired OC Kellen Moore away from the Cowboys this off-season to help unlock another level to the offense. Three of Moore’s four years as Dallas’ OC saw the offense rank inside the top nine in net yards per pats attempt. He has the talent and arsenal around him to be top-5 fantasy QB. Trevor Lawrence looked like a real life-breathing quarterback without Urban Meyer patrolling the sidelines. Another year of Doug Pederson and adding Calvin Ridley should only help his cause to be considered an elite fantasy option.

Tier 3- Weekly Top-10 Upside- These players carry a ton of upside but carry a fair amount of risk

Deshaun Watson

Aaron Rodgers

Tua Tagovailoa

Kirk Cousins

Dak Prescott

Deshaun Watson might be the most intriguing player in all of fantasy football to evaluate. Can you just throw out his 2022 season and expect him to play like he did previously? Before his suspension in 2021 he never ranked lower than seventh among QB’s in fantasy points. His WR group got an upgrade with Elijah Moore and rookie Cedric Tillman to pair with Amari Cooper Donovan Peoples-Jones. According to Fantasy Football Calculator his ADP sits at 11.01. For that price, he’s very attractive as a 2nd QB in Super Flex leagues. Aaron Rodgers makes this list because I’m not entirely sure what version of him we will see this season. He was battling a thumb injury in 2022 and lost Davante Adams to the Raiders. He will have a much improved supporting cast in New York and could be a prime candidate for comeback player of the year. The Jets defense is better than the Packers defense so he may not be in many shoot-outs, But his TD rate should go up and his INT rate should go down. Dak Prescott is difficult to trust in season-long formats. He only played in 12 games last season and played in 5 games in 2020. In the seasons Dak has played a full slate of games he has an average finish of 8th among QBs. He’s changing OC’s but added another reliable weapon in Brandin Cooks to the offense. There is no quarterback more frustrating to have on your team than Captain Purp himself. Cousins can win you a matchup one week and then absolutely tank you the next. You just hope he gets hot when you need him. KJ Osborn is ready to take over WR2 duties behind Justin Jefferson and rookie Jordan Addison is flying under the radar. Kirk also super reliable. He’s played less than 16 games just one time since becoming a full-time starter in 2015. If Tua can somehow avoid another head injury and is able to pick up where he left off from his breakout 2022, it would not surprise me to see him creep into tier 2. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are still there and Tua should have something to prove this season.

Tier 4- Jokers (Wild Cards)- Steady QB’s that can win you your league one week but are mistake prone

Geno Smith

Daniel Jones

Jared Goff

Kenny Pickett

I know you might have a hard time believing that the season Geno Smith put together is sustainable but I’m buying into him as a solid QB 2 in Superflex. He’s returning all of his weapons and adds Ohio state phenom Jaxon-Smith-Ngba to an already great WR room. He will have plenty of top-12 weeks. I’ve been waiting on Daniel Jones to take the next step as a passer. He’s always been mobile but he’s yet to show that he can lead an efficient passing attack. The yards were fine but he has to throw more than 15 touchdowns. His TD rate ranked 28th out of 33 qualifiers. Darren Waller should help with that but there was no other big addition to the pass game. Daboll was able to unlock his legs more but he will have to improve his numbers through the air to become a weekly starter. If he can he could easily jump a tier or two. When I first saw that Jared Goff was going to Detroit I thought his career was over. It looked like he would just be a bridge to the next young QB but Goff made me look like a damn fool. The Lions quietly had one of the most prolific passing attacks last season. He doesn’t carry a huge amount of upside but he is a steady and reliable match-up dependent QB to take late in drafts. I’m starting to think Kenny Pickett could really turn some heads this year. Don’t look at his TD rate because it’s gross. I’m intrigued by his rushing upside and his passing numbers can only get better. A full off-season as the starting QB with all his weapons returning should give him a decent chance to finish as a top 20 option.