Heading into the season there were plenty of skeptics about this Bengals squad. The largest question was whether quarterback Joe Burrow would be ready to go for the season after a serious knee injury in 2020. There were reports about Burrow struggling to regain confidence in his reconstructed knee in training camp; even from his own teammates. To make matters even more cloudy, rookie WR Ja’Marr Chase struggled in pre season and admitted he had trouble catching the NFL ball compared to the college ball. Not only did Burrow and Chase erase all doubt about those concerns, they teamed up to form one of the best QB/WR combinations in the NFL. The chemistry between the former LSU teammates was evident as Chase broke several records including the Bengals franchise receiving record (1,455) and most receiving yards in one game by a rookie in NFL history (266). It didn’t take long for Burrow to establish himself as an elite signal caller in just his sophomore season leading the league in YPA (8.9) and completion percentage (70.4). The Bengals quite frankly have 3 WR1’s with Chase (11 TD) , Tee Higgins (1091 yards) and Tyler Boyd (828 yards). Throw in Joe Mixon (1,205 13 TD) and you have a seriously dangerous offense and a core that should be a perennial playoff contender. Let me say that again, THE CINCINATTI BENGALS SHOULD BE A PERENNIAL PLAYOFF CONTENDER FOR YEARS TO COME. The Bengals also bring one of the leagues most fierce run defenses (5th in rushing yards allowed)

The Raiders started the season with head coach John Gruden on the sideline and second year WR Henry Ruggs ready to break out. By mid-season, both were dismissed from the team: Gruden was fired for inappropriate e-mails and Ruggs was released for a DUI that killed a Las Vegas woman. The Raiders normally shrink under regular pressure and distractions let alone distractions that make headline news. Led by the leadership of Derek Carr the Raiders turned that turmoil into a playoff berth. Carr was a steady presence under center (4,804 yards 23 TD) and found a new favorite target in Hunter Renfrow (103 receptions 1,038 9 TD). Pro Bowl tight end Darren Waller only played 11 games this season battling a knee injury and a stint in the Covid list but will be ready to go for this wild card matchup. RB Josh Jacobs could be the x-factor for the Raiders offense as he has come on strong towards the end of season (324 rushing yards, 2 TD last 3 games). On defense the Raiders have a very nice pass rush with Yannick Ngakoue (10 sacks 23 QB hits) and Max Crosby (8 sacks 30 QB hits, ).

PREDICTION: BENGALS-31 RAIDERS-24 The Bengals O-line couldn’t have slept well knowing they have to contend against the Raiders heavy pass rush. Max Crosby led the league with 82 QB pressures and Ngakoue led the team with 10 sacks. The constant pressure and sacks the Bengals give up have forced Joe Burrow to throw 14 picks. Both the Raiders and Bengals have susceptible secondary’s but the Raiders don’t give up many big plays, which could mean a big day for slot WR Tyler Boyd. The key to this game will be the play of Derek Carr. My guy does not play well in the cold. The temperature in Cincinnati will be 33 degrees with 8-10 mph winds. Carr is 0-5 in temperatures below 37-degrees. The Bengals will make the Raiders one dimensional and force Carr to make more mistakes than Burrow.

The Patriots made a huge statement in 2021, letting go of Cam Newton in the pre season and giving the keys to rookie Mac Jones. Jones played admirably and flashes franchise QB potential (3,801 yards 23 TDs 92.5 rate). As the season progresses it became increasingly difficult for the Pats to hide their rookie signal caller as he made more mistakes down the stretch (1-3 record last 4 games and 6:5 TD/INT ratio). Because of this the Pats have a stable of RBs they use at their disposal. They lean on Damien Harris (929 yards rushing 15 TDs 4.6 YPC) and Rhamondre Stevenson (606 yards rushing 5 TDs 4.6 YPC). In the pass game Jones has plenty of targets at his disposal. Jakobi Meyers finally scored a touchdown, Kendrick Bourne was a pleasant surprise and Nelson Agholor was a consistent and reliable deep threat. Hunter Henry was Jones’ security blanket and go-to guy in the red zone (603 yards 9 TDs). The O-line has been a source of pride only allowing 28 sacks (tied for third in the NFL). If it wasn’t for Buffalo, the Pats would have the best defense in the NFL. They have been elite pass defense even without Stephon Gilmore ranking second in the league in just about every passing metric with 23 INTs and second in completion percentage. They have the second best rating against QBs (73.3) and don’t give up many yards per attempt (also second in the NFL)

I fully expected Josh Allen and the Bills offense to continue its domination of the league. After a slow start to his career Allen has asserted himself amongst the NFL’s elite quarterbacks for a second straight season (4,407 36 TD 15 INT). His production took a slight dip from his 2020 campaign in the passing department. He wasn’t as accurate and made a few more mistakes. However, he did set a career high in rushing yards and yards per carry (763 6 TD 6.3 YPC). The league still doesn’t have an answer for Stefon Diggs (103 catches, 1,225 yards and 10 TDs) 2021 saw the Bills spread the ball around to more targets. Cole Beasley griped about Covid all season but was still a focal point in the offense. Dawson Knox had a career year (9 TDs), Gabe Davis was again a big play threat (35 catches, 549 yards and 6 TDs) and Emmanuel Sanders adds a third viable weapon (626 yards receiving and 4 TDs). The running game is certainly an afterthought in Buffalo but Devin Singletary has proved that he can be an effective back if he’s given the touches (1,098 all-purpose yards 4.6 YPC 8 TD). Where the Bills hang their helmets is on defense and damn were they great in 2021. They were the best unit in the league and the numbers back that up. They rank first in just about everything. First in QB rate allowed, yards per attempt and completion percentage. Their Achilles heal has been their run defense and look no further than their matchup with the Pats when Bilicheck devised a gameplan where they only threw the ball 3 times. At least they can hang their hat getting to the quarterback (they rank first in pressure rate.

PREDICTION: BILLS-27 PATRIOTS-24 This will be the third meeting between these divisional foes this season but the first time they have met in the playoffs. The Bills took their frustration out on Mac Jones in the second meeting after being embarrassed in the first meeting when the Patriots famously threw the ball just three times. Mac Jones will HAVE to be apart of the gameplan and play well this time around. The road team has won the matchup each meeting but I expect the Bills to buck that trend. The Patriots should give them everything they want but in the end, Jones is a rookie in the playoffs. The Bills should smell blood in the water. Josh Allen will be hungry to get back to the AFC championship and prove the Bills belong amongst the NFL’s elite. He threw for 314 yards 3 TDs and no INTs in the latest matchup vs the Patriots. The door will be open for the Patriots if the Bills continue to struggle with penalties (27th on offense and 20th on defense).